Energy transition not only cuts emissions, but also delivers substantial economic returns and job growth; over the medium to long term, investment reallocation and building a more flexible power grid will be key, high-certainty themes.
The gap between aspiration and the reality in tackling climate change remains as significant as ever, despite mounting evidence of the harm that climate change is causing. Negative effects of climate change are becoming more evident year by year (NASA, WMO, 2020). Yet global energy-related CO2 emissions, despite levelling off periodically, have risen by 1% per year on average over the last decade.
The distribution of efforts among countries remains uneven, with certain countries pursuing net-zero emissions while others continue to lack policy targets. Government plans have yet to fully capture the reality of the markets. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) within the Paris Agreement framework are in many cases less ambitious than the latest energy plans and market developments. According to IRENA estimates, current NDC power targets only cover 40% of the renewable electricity deployment needed by 2030 to set the world on course to meet key climate goals (IRENA, 2019b).
The health, humanitarian, social and economic crises set off by the current COVID-19 pandemic could either widen the gap or accelerate the decarbonisation of our societies. Much will depend on how countries respond in terms of economic stimulus. The challenges of ensuring sustainability, strengthening resilience and improving people’s health and welfare will be paramount. The Transforming Energy Scenario (TES) identified in this report shows how to achieve stable, climate-safe, sustainable long-term energy and economic development. The resulting outlook – further enhanced by the Deeper Decarbonisation Perspective (DDP) – could guide low-carbon policy measures, helping to ensure coherence between rhetoric and action in tackling climate change.
This report presents several possible scenarios for the evolution of energy-related CO2 emissions. In the Baseline Energy Scenario (BES), energy-related emissions increase by a compound annual rate of 0.7% per year to 43 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2050 (up from 34 Gt in 2019), resulting in a likely temperature rise of 3°C or more in the second half of this century. The Planned Energy Scenario (PES), or main reference case, sees emissions increase slightly by 2030 and then decline to 33 Gt, roughly today’s level, by 2050. This would result in a likely global temperature rise of 2.5°C in the second half of this century. IRENA’s Transforming Energy Scenario, in contrast, sees emissions fall at a compound rate of 3.8% per year to some 10 Gt, or 70% less than today’s level, by 2050, keeping the expected temperature rise well below 2°C.
Read the full report “IRENA Global Renewables Outlook 2020” (PDF)
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